The Econometrics of Military Arms Races
نویسندگان
چکیده
This chapter reviews the econometric issues involved in estimating models of the competitive acquisition of military capability. Econometrics involves the synthesis of theory, data and statistical methods thus in reviewing the econometrics of arms races, we will pay as much attention to theory and data as we do to statistical methods. After discussing the choice of data and the theoretical issues in specification, we then examine four types of model: time-series estimation of classical Richardson type action-reaction models, using India and Pakistan as an example; Markov switching estimation of gametheory type models, using Greece and Turkey as an example; cross-section models and panel models.
منابع مشابه
Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: The Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures*
After the end of the Cold War, many states in East Asia embarked on robust military build-up and defence modernisation programs. In light of this development, one of the main security concerns in the region stemmed from the fact that such weapons acquisition programs were conducted with a relative lack of transparency with respect to regional states’ objectives and motivations. In an effort to ...
متن کاملA Hierarchical Bayesian Arms Race Model
There is a long history in the social sciences of building models to describe processes related to arms races. These include both theoretical models, such as the actionreaction Richardson model, and empirical models. In addition, there is a substantial literature on estimating parameters associated with these models given observations of military expenditures, or various proxies. Such methods s...
متن کاملWhen Are Arms Races Dangerous?
Are arms races dangerous? This basic international relations question has received extensive attention.1 A large quantitative empirical literature addresses the consequences of arms races by focusing on whether they correlate with war, but remains divided on the answer.2 The theoretical literature falls into opposing camps: (1) arms races are driven by the security dilemma, are explained by the...
متن کاملNew Challenges to Arms Export Control : Whither Wassenaar ?
Ron Smith is Professor of Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London. He has been Visiting Professor at the London Business School and the University of Colorado and has published seven books and over a hundred papers in the areas of applied econometrics and defense economics. Bernard Udis is Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at the University of Colorado at Boulder. During 1997, he was ...
متن کاملCoevolution: The Geographic Mosaic of Coevolutionary Arms Races
Coevolutionary arms races between species can favor exaggeration of traits for attack and defense, but relentless escalation of these arms races does not necessarily occur in all populations.
متن کامل